2 July 2017

2017 Queen's Plate Predictions

Queen's Plate Day is upon us once more and as a Canadian who blogs about horse racing, albeit very sparingly these days, I feel an obligation to at least give my picks for the race.

Because I avoid filly repeat winners at all costs, the fact that the morning line favorite is exactly that means that there might just be some value in this race. Lightly raced Holy Helena is coming off a top figure in the Oaks and a same day time that was one full second better than the Plate Trial. It is almost certain that she will bounce, the question is how much. I'm envisioning midway through the far turn, generally when jockey Luis Contreras asks his horses to go, a bit of life followed by an empty sign at the 1/8th pole.

So who do I like? It is very hard to really like anyone coming from the Plate Trial, but if were to pick the one with the best chance, it would be King and His Court. He looks like he can improve off that last race and because he had success as a two year old at Woodbine going a mile and an eighth, I expect him to handle the extra eighth of a mile.

I'm pitching Guy Caballero who seemed to fall into a win. It is possible he can improve, but he just doesn't seem good enough. State of Honor is another horse who will probably take action because of who he faced in the past, but he looks like a 7 furlong to a mile horse. If he has any pressure on the lead, look for him to falter by the top of the stretch. Without pressure he still should be passed by at least 3 comers.

The top figure horse (if you eliminate the filly) is Channel Maker. I see the one post as a benefit in the Plate. I don't like horses off over a month going this kind of distance, but these days 35 days is acceptable. The obvious question is can he get the distance? He seems to be a mile and sixteenth horse, so he'll need a good trip to win the race, any trouble, and it will be an uphill climb.

Malibu Secret is a real mystery. Something tells me his entire training campaign this year has had one goal in mind and that is the Plate. His numbers put him in the hunt here.

It can't go without saying that Eurico Rosa Da Silva took Tiz A Slam in this race. Right now, he looks like a better grasser. His numbers make him a contender, but his post might be too hard to overcome. Finish 3rd or 4th is a good possibility for him.

Aurora Way was very impressive beating up on maidens in his only race, but his speed fig coupled with his post today doesn't do it for me.

Chad Brown's filly Inflexibility (named after racing's stance against recognizing that horse racing is about gambling not so much sport) may improve off her last, and I can see her even beating Holy Helena. Even so, at best she might get fourth.

Spirit of Caledon is another who might just improve enough and get a good enough trip to graze the superfecta.

As for the other horses not mentioned, I just don't like them enough to mention them, and if they run in on me, I'll turn the page, I have no issues turning the page regardless if the race has a million dollar purse or a $10,000 purse.

My official picks:

Fort Erie's Pregame Show is full of Queen's Plate Picks by horsemen in the backstretch:

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